如果没有看过《魔鬼经济学》，您不妨先看看我以前的魔鬼的思维和星张翼轸的介绍。现在要说的不是这本书，而是这本书的核心与众多媒体写手们热捧的所谓“互联网泡沫”。
我一直是反对很多人热炒泡沫的。就象在Rundown of the past week里说的，第一次的所谓泡沫以及迟迟未开和的中国Web2.0产业，给写手们机会把都笔杆子对准了他们。可是我希望他们停住。如果我说第一次互联网泡沫更本比大家认为的要小的多，大家会不会以为我疯了？如果你真的是这么想的，就看看Lee Gomes的专栏文章反思互联网泡沫：
“最近的一份研究报告显示，网络泡沫时期的新加入者不是太多了，而是太少了；至少是业务类型合适的太少了。”
“同其它几个主要行业初步成形世纪的情况相比，互联网初创公司的存活率...甚至还要略高一些”
“大多数幸存者并不是eBay之类的大公司，而是更小的公司”
当然，他的文章还坦诚，目前的Google, Yahoo!等的收购虽然有些是合乎逻辑的，但有些还是有泡沫的印记。
为什么这样一个大大的泡泡里面的事实只有他，而不是更多的人，到现在才提出来呢？反而有几十倍的人跟风炒作泡沫。 《魔鬼经济学》所提倡的，是找到人们从事经济活动的动机和激励机制(incentive)。因此就必须深究事实，拿仔细研究出的Data和Number说话，而不是被信奉所谓的“传统智慧” 的大多数牵着走。
我倒不是要否认泡沫的存在。如果说第一次的泡沫是因为存在很多不够专业的二流风险投资人的盲目投资，那这次也有某些不够专业的风投喜欢到处放话，只不过他们作出的投资决定不同，可是却同样对行业的发展不利。建议大家看看那篇文章，了解了解我们挂在嘴边的“泡沫”到底有是不是大得又要破了。
其实无论互联网泡沫几何，每一个靠着互联网吃饭的人们都不应该过多考虑泡沫什么时候又要破裂。就像高超的飞行特级师，不会在几百尺高空做特级的时候考虑飞机什么时候会掉下去一样。
祝愿那些勇于拿出创新意识，心甘情愿为自己那份事业打拼的人们。
Sunday, 14 January 2007
Where the Internet Videos heading?
In my previous post Rundown of the past week, i disagreed with what Ji Qi said there were no opportunities in the Internet sector. Here is the evidence again.
Danwei has compiled a good list of Chinese Video Sharing websites. 20-odd companies, such as Tudou and Rox, are in the list and most of them are for entertainment.
The Internet research firm, iResearch, posted a report on Corporate TV Station instead, complimenting it is a fairy tale for companies to build up their own "TV stations" at a price as little as RMB860. The Corporate TV station started less than month ago (probably on 31st Oct), run by a Shenzhen-based company named Asian Commercial Harbour by Fu Dekun who is an experienced channel distribution expert and is known as a "marketing shark".
There are four corporate-level stations, namely Corporate, Channel, Marketing and Partnership. Only few days ago, I just couldn't understand can't tolerate the site's slow loading speed but now the cheap price has attracted many corporate clients and a number of agencies in partnership from, e.g., Shanxi and Chongqing.
I think it is a good signal for Chinese Internet companies to evolve. You conceive it of a new B2B business model, taking the "traditional" web2.0 video sharing concepts into account. It's a simple move towards a blue ocean (I really don't want to use it when everyone else does) market with tremendous size.
The sector is to be further developed as there are not many websites running similar business. Oyoo is another one serving small shopping stores and restaurants.
有意思的Playstation 3
昨天在YouTube上面用Playstation 3搜索，发现居然已经有了2261条相关视频。亏了YouTube，我买不起，总能够看看吧。其中很多是在发布会上介绍新款游戏机的录像。听说这台及其在美国仅仅只是限量销售，而在日本又因为供应短缺，每台售价在网络上曾经超过了10万日币。不知道为什么，这款新游戏机的发布总会让我想起了每次都能够引起关注的乔布斯的iPod的新品发布会。在人们眼里，乔布斯和他手里的iPod同样具有世界品牌的特别魔力。但是对于Sony，Playstation 3就完全成为了Focol Point(焦点)。
下面有一段Video，是对比PS3和PS2的游戏人物的动作和反应能力。我不太看NBA，但是我知道演示人物应该就是火箭队的麦迪（他是1号吗？）。
演示主要用来表示：
跑动的转体中，PS3对于动作有了更加逼真的倾斜处理，而不是直直地就能够在跑动中转弯了。
另外还有一个介绍游戏手柄的视频，而且还可以和PSP相连，有那么点意思。
Update: 正巧第一财经日报上有一篇关于最新的PS和XBox的评论叫做“PS3和Xbox 360：更完美娱乐体验”，看看吧。
下面有一段Video，是对比PS3和PS2的游戏人物的动作和反应能力。我不太看NBA，但是我知道演示人物应该就是火箭队的麦迪（他是1号吗？）。
演示主要用来表示：
另外还有一个介绍游戏手柄的视频，而且还可以和PSP相连，有那么点意思。
跑动的转体中，PS3对于动作有了更加逼真的倾斜处理，而不是直直地就能够在跑动中转弯了。
另外还有一个介绍游戏手柄的视频，而且还可以和PSP相连，有那么点意思。
Update: 正巧第一财经日报上有一篇关于最新的PS和XBox的评论叫做“PS3和Xbox 360：更完美娱乐体验”，看看吧。
该死的"怀才不遇"!
昨天突然想到一个词，怀才不遇。曾经的怀才不遇，现在应该死去！不，应该去死！如果在曾经没有网络的封闭世界里，怀才不遇是人们对自己仕途和事业发展遇到阻碍的解释，那么现在就是可笑的赤裸裸的掩饰。昨天，我参加了在上海的MBA Tour，众人才们挤在一个大厅内为自己的人生发展仔细打听。如果没有主办方的努力，现代化的电信工具和交通工具，就不会有这么多知名的大学漂洋过海，挤在一起比拼。参加的candidates们也不会想着飞到大洋的那头“淘金”。在这个熙熙攘攘的大厅，是机会来寻找你。
因为技术的不断革新这是一个快速世界，到处都是机会。
技术的发展已经改变了我们接受知识，交流经验和让别人发现自己的方式。你只需要一个网络、知道几种网络工具，比如MSN Messenger, 在MSN Space上留下自己，就能够让别人看到你。近几年出现的网络平台无一不对人们获取知识提供了太方便的条件。只要动动手指头就能够找到你想要的。如果你不知道什么是RSS reader，你就已经落在了别人后面。
如今每个人、每个企业都可以利用博客作为自己信息发布的平台。个性化的平台提供了个性化的服务，让人们更加个性化。因为这样，这是一个“秀”的世界，你完全可以象任何人一样秀出自己。展现才华也好，夺人眼球也好，让人评论也好，改变形象也好，只要利用想象力和创造力。正如叶茂中说的“没有创意就去死吧”！例子太多不用举，地球人都知道。更何况各个咨询公司争相报导中国的管理人才短缺。但是如果还不抓住机会，或者还在思考自己为什么怀才不遇，那你就需要为自己的资源浪费埋单。
因为技术的不断革新这是一个快速世界，到处都是机会。
技术的发展已经改变了我们接受知识，交流经验和让别人发现自己的方式。你只需要一个网络、知道几种网络工具，比如MSN Messenger, 在MSN Space上留下自己，就能够让别人看到你。近几年出现的网络平台无一不对人们获取知识提供了太方便的条件。只要动动手指头就能够找到你想要的。如果你不知道什么是RSS reader，你就已经落在了别人后面。
如今每个人、每个企业都可以利用博客作为自己信息发布的平台。个性化的平台提供了个性化的服务，让人们更加个性化。因为这样，这是一个“秀”的世界，你完全可以象任何人一样秀出自己。展现才华也好，夺人眼球也好，让人评论也好，改变形象也好，只要利用想象力和创造力。正如叶茂中说的“没有创意就去死吧”！例子太多不用举，地球人都知道。更何况各个咨询公司争相报导中国的管理人才短缺。但是如果还不抓住机会，或者还在思考自己为什么怀才不遇，那你就需要为自己的资源浪费埋单。
"That is RIDICULOUS!"
A foreign middle-level young manager said with anger and blush face to a Chinese female sales employee (my friend):"That's ridiculous!", when she refused to work in funny American hours from 3pm-11pm, to sell products to US-based "potential" clients with consideration of not being time-worthy. This is a 3rd time that he imposed such a requirement. And that, the requirement itself, is ridiculous.
What makes it more ridiculous is that, as a manager, he is very inexperienced and has less than one-year experience but manages a 2-year experienced sales with good track record, not knowing what is Huawei and even some top-tiered global bank (I don't want to name it) that have truly huge presence in Shanghai. Moreover, as a businessman in China, he does NOT know how to speak Chinese.
Do I like expats in Shanghai? Yes, except some of those who do and say things that make no sense at all. I personally read a lot of blogs foreigner who are: Danwei who produces videos and podcasts, Shanghaiist, SeekAlpha China Stock that has a great deal of company and stock info, China Law Blog by Harris&Moure, The China Venture done by a venture capitalist, China Businesscast with podcasts containing professional viewpoints, and China Business services et cetera. Those sites contains informative values circulating quickly. Plus, they become a tight society that share things. I like the facts that some expats get well organized with incentive for business, information, social events, and fun. I have to acknowledge that lot of my knowledge about my own country are from them. I am not and will never try/trying to hide it because this is what it is! A friend of mine who came from South Africa and is currently studying in Fudan University is a very active boy in attending various events and getting to know professionals. I can tell he is definitely learning-driven, ambitious and friendly.
As I said in my previous entries here and here, I believe foreigners in Shanghai bring new business philosophies, diverse cultures, and consumptions in China. They manage and invest...... But unfortunately, there are inevitably small part of them who are not as knowledgeable and serious as we suppose. It is evident that they have little business sense, do not speak Chinese, have no idea of Chinese culture, are not skilled in talking and negotiating with Chinese and able to bring as much profit as local Chinese can to the company, but unfairly get western pay which is 10 times more than Chinese in similar posts. Actually they insist on their ideas, don't want to change, pay a lip service to localization (see here for What does "localization" really mean?), and refuse to speak Chinese. Even worse, some pay little respect to Chinese and always keep eyes on them.
Consequentially, they are causing and have already caused a high level of instability in management. Chinese employees are very hard to be motivated and maybe eventually lose trust in foreigner leaders, although I don't personally hope so. I have to say there are some local persons who are not capable, but if an expat wants to come to China for whatever things, he/she should get himself/herself ready for it. And this is actually what a lot of them are good at.
UPDATE: Erik Nilsson in (China Daily) posted an article discussing the quality and quantity of expatriate men in China, especially in Beijing. In the article titled Foreign women label Beijing a dating wasteland posted on 11 Nov, some expatriate ladies said that:
For China's lonely "laowai" ladies, it seems the problem is a matter of not only the quantity of [expatriate] men, but also the quality... "Beijing seems to attract only certain types of guys: English-teacher types straight out of college who just want to have fun, ladder-climbing executive types and a bunch of weirdoes," said Emily Patterson, 23, of Cleveland, Ohio, who works as a reporter for a Chinese magazine in Beijing. "You don't want a college guy. Maybe the executive type is already married, busy or boring. And of course, you don't want to date a weirdo
"At home, maybe you meet a hundred nice, normal, single, socially, capable guys, and you have feelings for one or two. Here you meet five normal guys, and there's such a small chance that one of them is the one you want."
Like many expatriate women in China, Hartman believes that while "a few" laowai guys in China are worthwhile men, capable of establishing solid relationships, many come here to get a badly needed ego boost.
"The majority of men come here because they have issues back home ... or they just can't get a woman back home for a number of reasons," she said. "They come here because they become a big fish in a little pond; they become very important and sought after."
What makes it more ridiculous is that, as a manager, he is very inexperienced and has less than one-year experience but manages a 2-year experienced sales with good track record, not knowing what is Huawei and even some top-tiered global bank (I don't want to name it) that have truly huge presence in Shanghai. Moreover, as a businessman in China, he does NOT know how to speak Chinese.
Do I like expats in Shanghai? Yes, except some of those who do and say things that make no sense at all. I personally read a lot of blogs foreigner who are: Danwei who produces videos and podcasts, Shanghaiist, SeekAlpha China Stock that has a great deal of company and stock info, China Law Blog by Harris&Moure, The China Venture done by a venture capitalist, China Businesscast with podcasts containing professional viewpoints, and China Business services et cetera. Those sites contains informative values circulating quickly. Plus, they become a tight society that share things. I like the facts that some expats get well organized with incentive for business, information, social events, and fun. I have to acknowledge that lot of my knowledge about my own country are from them. I am not and will never try/trying to hide it because this is what it is! A friend of mine who came from South Africa and is currently studying in Fudan University is a very active boy in attending various events and getting to know professionals. I can tell he is definitely learning-driven, ambitious and friendly.
As I said in my previous entries here and here, I believe foreigners in Shanghai bring new business philosophies, diverse cultures, and consumptions in China. They manage and invest...... But unfortunately, there are inevitably small part of them who are not as knowledgeable and serious as we suppose. It is evident that they have little business sense, do not speak Chinese, have no idea of Chinese culture, are not skilled in talking and negotiating with Chinese and able to bring as much profit as local Chinese can to the company, but unfairly get western pay which is 10 times more than Chinese in similar posts. Actually they insist on their ideas, don't want to change, pay a lip service to localization (see here for What does "localization" really mean?), and refuse to speak Chinese. Even worse, some pay little respect to Chinese and always keep eyes on them.
Consequentially, they are causing and have already caused a high level of instability in management. Chinese employees are very hard to be motivated and maybe eventually lose trust in foreigner leaders, although I don't personally hope so. I have to say there are some local persons who are not capable, but if an expat wants to come to China for whatever things, he/she should get himself/herself ready for it. And this is actually what a lot of them are good at.
UPDATE: Erik Nilsson in (China Daily) posted an article discussing the quality and quantity of expatriate men in China, especially in Beijing. In the article titled Foreign women label Beijing a dating wasteland posted on 11 Nov, some expatriate ladies said that:
For China's lonely "laowai" ladies, it seems the problem is a matter of not only the quantity of [expatriate] men, but also the quality... "Beijing seems to attract only certain types of guys: English-teacher types straight out of college who just want to have fun, ladder-climbing executive types and a bunch of weirdoes," said Emily Patterson, 23, of Cleveland, Ohio, who works as a reporter for a Chinese magazine in Beijing. "You don't want a college guy. Maybe the executive type is already married, busy or boring. And of course, you don't want to date a weirdo
"At home, maybe you meet a hundred nice, normal, single, socially, capable guys, and you have feelings for one or two. Here you meet five normal guys, and there's such a small chance that one of them is the one you want."
Like many expatriate women in China, Hartman believes that while "a few" laowai guys in China are worthwhile men, capable of establishing solid relationships, many come here to get a badly needed ego boost.
"The majority of men come here because they have issues back home ... or they just can't get a woman back home for a number of reasons," she said. "They come here because they become a big fish in a little pond; they become very important and sought after."
I-WOM
I-WOM, you might think it's a new term that was come out by some expert. Yes exactly. It is short for the Internet Word of Mouth (互联网口碑), which is initiated by Sam Flamming, the boss of CIC Data. In his podcast done by Danwei, he outlined that Chinese WoM has larger effects in BBS than blogs, because in BBS, there are groups of specific and focused topics that people are welcomed and gathered to discuss. There are some 1.5 to 2 million new messages every month, which is amazing and much more than the West. He also mentioned that because the Chinese traditional media are largely controlled by the government, people place less trust on them and, when something or a big issue happened, most of people prefer to approach their friends or relatives who close to the situation for truth.
I wonder if I can further simplified iWoM to WoN, that is, Word of Net (网碑), or WiN, i.e., Word of the InterNet. They can be pronounced as "win" or "won". Would they sound better?
Enjoy the podcast here.
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